In5d

In5d TM is a revolutionary new product for the evaluation and management of enterprise decisions.  In an ever increasingly connected world, change and uncertainty abounds.  Enterprises that succeed will manage their global  organisation as a single entity and continually adapt to rapidly changing conditions.

INTEGRATED MODELING

Strategic decisions must examine the future possibilities and options.  To achieve this we need to represent interactions between the parts of the business.  Integrated models, co-operatively created by domain experts, provide the intelligence to create current and future options, make balanced decisions and develop agile adaptive plans.  

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Enhanced Exploration Performance

 
As the world's oil and gas resources have become more scarce, discovering new resources has become increasingly difficult.  In the 1990's returns on exploration expenditure for most oil and gas companies were negative.  More recently many companies have improved performance through standardised evaluation procedures, and through enhanced information resulting from improved technology and particularly the application of 3D Seismic.  In many cases companies have achieved this enhanced performance through the avoidance of high risk prospects.

Exploration has traditionally been the growth engine of oil and gas companies.  Achieving growth through exploration has become increasingly difficult.  In the new high oil price environment the pressure is once again to drill higher risk prospects in more hostile and costly environments.   In such an environment to avoid the failures of the 1990's companies must employ enhanced evaluation and decision management processes.

Indeva Experience

For the last 15 years, Indeva has helped oil and gas companies evaluate decision strategies for exploration and appraisal prospects and portfolios worldwide.  Our work has been wide ranging from  evaluation of individual prospects, complex multi-prospect blocks through to portfolios.  Our services have helped companies to not only make decisions about current alternatives but to also develop adaptive strategies that are able to adjust to new events as they occur.  Examples of typical work areas performed include:

  • Providing alternatives for farm-in negotiations by evaluating all prospects across various PSC thresholds to determine the optimal fiscal structure for license applications.
  • Enabling decision-makers to objectively prioritise drilling by performing costing and economic studies across prospects.
  • Construction of complex multi-prospect evalaution models
  • Providing a consistent process and format for project evaluation by training appropriate clients’ staff to implement standard assessment procedures.

Please refer to our Enhanced Exploration Performance case study for further more details on our experience in this area.

Active Learning Evaluation Improves Performance


Since Indeva started helping oil companies evaluate exploration and appraisal prospects we have seen massive improvements in computing power that enable new evaluation techniques to be applied to decision problems.  Traditional decision analysis techniques utilised for evaluation of exploration and appraisal were developed around the computing capability available in the 1970's and treated all uncertainty and decisions as discrete and static, these, however were idealisations designed to make evaluation easy for the computer. 

Real problems, however, are far more complex than the models used represent. Uncertainty is both continuous and varies over time, further the outcome of learning activities such as seismic, exploration and appraisal drilling are rarely the clear outcomes predicted by classic decision tree analyses, learning activities reduce uncertainty but do not usually eliminate it.   As a result  of  the incomplete resolution of uncertainty, each stage in a decision process, will normally result in a myriad of potential options rather than the two represented in most decision processes.

Improved exploration decisions will only come from better understanding and simulation of the learning process.  Through Indeva's research into active learning we have developed models that are able to better represent the exploration process and thereby improve decisions and exploration value added.